The International Writers Magazine: The Mysteries of Numbers in a tight election

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SIZE DOES MATTER- Kerry to Win Easily... • Larry S. Rolirad Pollsters, pundits and politics.  Had enough?  Well, folks, you can forget all of the  political rhetoric you have been hearing from both sides of the political spectrum.  Toss it.  Chunk it.  It is no longer relevant.  What does matter is a one hundred year statistical record which fairly well confirms a win this November for Senator John Kerry.

In the last one hundred years in US history the tallest presidential candidates received more popular votes in 88% of the elections, and won 84% of the time.  This year's election pits presidential contender, Senator John F. Kerry at a whopping height of 6 foot 4 inches against President George W. Bush, who's height is a 'paltry' 5 feet 11 inches.  Since the shorter candidate for president lost 84% of the time since 1904, President Bush's chances of winning in 2004 appear very slim.   

The last time we had a president as tall as Kerry's 6 foot 4 inch frame it was 140 years ago, and the president was Abraham Lincoln.  If Kerry wins in November he will match our tallest president's height. 
Since 1904, only three times has the shorter candidate received more popular votes in the election.  The first happened in the 1940 election where presidential challenger, Wendell L. Willkie at 6' 2 1/2" lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt at 6' 2".  The other two shorter candidates who managed to buck the odds and win the most popular votes were Richard M. Nixon at 5' 11 1/2" and Jimmy E. Carter at 5' 9 1/2", in years 1972 and 1976; respectively.

There are several other statistics that spell doom for another Bush win in this year's election.   GW Bush is the first president to preside over a net loss of jobs during his watch since President Herbert Hoover, seventy-two years earlier.  Under Hoover, the net loss of jobs was a whopping negative 9.0 percent.  Under Bush, the loss of jobs was a negative 0.8 percent.  No other presidents in the past hundred years has had a net loss of jobs.  Only Presidents Hoover and Bush share that dubious "distinction".

Like Herbert Hoover, President Bush is a republican incumbent president who facing a taller challenger for reelection.  President Hoover at 5' 11" lost to challenger Franklin D. Roosevelt at 6' 2'.   And President Bush is facing Senator John Kerry, a challenger who is a whopping 6' 4".  

There are a lot of similarities between Bush and Hoover.  Both men share the same height at 5 foot 11 inches.  Both men were republicans.  Both men were incumbents when they faced taller opponents.  And Hoover had two sons (Herbert Clark Hoover and Allan Henry Hoover) while Bush had two daughters (Barbara and Jenna).  There is a certain Yin and Yang about this.  GW Bush is even a distant cousin to Herbert Hoover, but related nevertheless.  Samuel Prescott Bush, George W. Bush's great grandfather, was an Ohio manufacturer who was also a close advisor to President Herbert Hoover.  And if President Bush is defeated, he will share the same distinction with President Hoover as both being one-term presidents.

Another curious connection between Presidents Hoover and Bush occurs if you add up all of the digits in the year republican President Hoover lost, or "1932", the total is "six", or 1+ 9+3 +2 =15, then add the digits in "15", or 1+5=6.  Now add up the digits in the current year in which Bush is running for office, or "2004", you get the same common number, or 2+0+0+4=6.
The same number "6" is also common to both presidents in one other way.  Herbert Clark Hoover contains 6 vowels, Herbert (2) Clark (1) Hoover (3), or 2+1+3=6;  as does George Walker Bush, George (3) Walker (2) Bush (1), or 3+1=6.

Herbert Hoover was born in 1874 and GW Bush in 1946.  If you add all of the digits in each birth year the total is 20 for each president, Herbert Hoover, 1+8+7+4=20, and GW Bush, 1+9+4+6=20.

Lastly, if Kerry wins he will match Lincoln's height as the tallest presidents in our history.  Both Lincoln and Kerry were 6 foot 4 inches.   Abe Lincoln and Senator Kerry share another similarity.  With a Kerry win he will match Lincoln's age when he was elected in 1864.  Lincoln was 59 in the 1864 election and Kerry will be 59 at the time of the 2004 election.
The statistics don't lie.  My money is on a Senator John Kerry win.

1904
Theodore Roosevelt  (Rep)  5' 10"   TALLER WINS
Alton B. Parker  (Dem)  5' 9"
1908 
William H. Taft  (Rep)  6' 0"    TALLER WINS
William J. Bryan  (Dem)   5' 10"
1912
Woodrow Wilson (Dem)  5' 11"   TALLER WINS
Theodore Roosevelt  (P) 5' 10"
1916
Woodrow Wilson (Dem)  5' 11"  TALLER WINS
Charles E. Hughes  (Rep) 5' 10"
1920
Warren G. Harding  (Rep)  6' 0"  TALLER WINS
James M. Cox (Dem)  5' 10"
1924 
Calvin Coolidge  (Rep) 5' 10"  TALLER WINS
John W. Davis (Dem)  5' 9"
1928 
Herbert Hoover (Rep)  5' 11"   TALLER WINS
Alfred E. Smith (Dem)  5' 10"
1932 
Franklin D. Roosevelt (Dem)  6' 2"  TALLER WINS
Herbert Hoover  (Rep)  5' 11"
1936 
Franklin D. Roosevelt (Dem)  6' 2"  TALLER WINS
Alfred M. Landon (Rep)  6' 0"
1940
Franklin D. Roosevelt (Dem)  6' 2"  SHORTER WINS
Wendell L Willkie  (Rep)  6' 2 1/2" 
1944 
Franklin D. Roosevelt (Dem)  6' 2"  TALLER WINS
Thomas E. Dewey (Rep)  5' 8"
1948 
Harry S Truman  (Dem) 5' 9"   TALLER WINS
Thomas E. Dewey (Rep)  5' 8"
1952 
Dwight D. Eisenhower (Rep)  5' 10 1/2"  TALLER WINS
Adlai Stevenson  (Dem)  5' 10"
1956
Dwight D. Eisenhower (Rep)  5' 10 1/2" TALLER WINS
Adlai Stevenson (Dem) 5' 10"
1960 
John F. Kennedy  (Dem) 6' 0"   TALLER WINS
Richard M. Nixon (Rep)  5' 11 1/2"
1964 
Lyndon B. Johnson  (Dem)  6' 1"   TALLER WINS
Barry Goldwater (Rep)  6' 0"
1968 
Richard M. Nixon (Rep)  5' 11 1/2"   TALLER WINS
Hubert H. Humphrey  (Dem)  5' 11"
George C. Wallace (Ind) 5' 10"
1972
George McGovern (Dem)   6' 1" 
Richard M. Nixon  (Rep)   5' 11 1/2"  SHORTER WINS
1976   
Gerald Ford   (Rep)   6' 0"  
Jimmy E. Carter (Dem)  5' 9 1/2"  SHORTER WINS
1980 
Ronald W. Reagan  (Rep)  6' 1"  TALLER WINS
Jimmy E. Carter (Dem)  5' 9 1/2"
1984 
Ronald W. Reagan   (Rep)   6' 1"   TALLER WINS
Walter Mondale (Dem)  5' 11"
1988 
George HW Bush  (Rep)  6' 1 1/2"  TALLER WINS
Michael Dukakis (Dem)   5' 8"
1992 
Bill J. Clinton (Dem)   6'  2 1/2"  TALLER WINS
George HW Bush  (Rep)  6' 1 1/2"
Ross Perot  (Ind)   5' 7"
1996   
Bill J. Clinton (Dem)  6'  2 1/2"  TALLER WINS
Bob Dole  (Rep)  6' 1"
Ross Perot (Ind)   5' 7"
2000 
Al Gore (Dem)  6' 1"  ***Most Popular Votes/Lost
George W. Bush  (Rep)  5' 11" SHORTER WINS
2004
John F. Kerry (Dem)  6' 4 "
George W. Bush  (Rep)  5' 11"***The taller candidate in the 2000 election, Al Gore, "lost" in a controversial contest where vote counting was stopped by the republican party, which relied on the republican-laden Supreme Court to appoint GW Bush.

see also GOP - Why a vote for Bush means a vote for continuous war

© 2004, Larry S. Rolirad, All Rights Reserved

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