••• The International Writers Magazine - Our 20th Year: 2nd Spanish Elections 2019
Another Fine Mess in Spain 2019
Election gamble fails and horse trading begins
I will start by leaving the Catalonia saga out of this essay. The region is in one hell of a mess regarding its fight for independence and would require more that an essay to open this European Pandora's Box in any form of analysis.
Herewith Spanish election analysis 16.11.19
The results on the 11th of November were not without surprises. The socialists (PSOE) received the largest number of votes, although dropped from those of the previous election that was held only back in April. Neither were sufficient to form a government as the number required for a majority is 176 out of a total of 350. So what about the rest of the voting? How did it vary? The only party that moved up a few notches were the conservatives (PP) with 89 and VOX, the new right wing kid on the block - labelled far right by the left wing as well as the international press - with an amazing 52 MPs. The rest dropped back and included the 'undercover' communists 'We can' (Podemos) with 35 and the 'every-which-way' party (Ciudadanos) that fell to only 10. So much so that it's charismatic young leader Albert Ribera immediately presented his resignation. It is a real shame as he was a true democratic and honest politician that had fought for 'common sense' with certain basic and deep routed reforms that were needed, especially in the bureaucratic sectors of state administrations. He was also a staunch fighter against nationalistic uprising including the Independence movement in Catalonia. By the way, he is also a Catalan.
So what now?
Pedro Sanchez, the present acting socialist (PSOE) President who has consolidated his position, needs to form some sort of a coalition government before the end of the year. Vital in order to approve the 'stalemate' 2020 budgets that needs to be approved to release much needed funds, as well to be sent to the European Union for confirmation. He is therefore in a 'round-robin', organizing meetings with the various parties that make up the 'left wing' family. And they are, not only plenty and in small numbers, but were the ones that backed him in the famous 'vote of no confidence' coup that ousted the conservative (PP) president Mariano Rajoy over a year ago in June 2018.
His first agreement was obvious, but not without an incredible surprise. Pablo Iglesias, the Venezuelan style revolutionist and leader of the 'We can' (Podemos) party signed a binding pact with Pedro Sanchez, similar to a 'blood oath' as Sean Connery did with Kevin Costner in the 'Untouchables' that will not only introduce the former's program that includes every possible hard left reform throughout the country, but the party will now form part of the actual government. Sr. Pablo Iglesias will become one of three vice-presidents and his party will head at least three important ministries.
The whole of the right wing sector are speechless.
The new government want to hit the banks. The day after news that Podemos were involved Bank shares dropped by 4% with a loss for investors of 6000 millon Euro and the stock market was hit hard.
I'll just leave the politics until the end of the year to see how this whole scenario develops and unless there is a major hiccup I'll just move on to the official time frame.
On the 3rd December Parliament and the Senate will be constituted. Following day, King Felipe VI will start a round of talks with all parties that will probably end around the middle of the month. If these end satisfactorily, debating in parliament will begin to agree or disagree to the formation of a government. Again, if all goes according to plan, the new President will be sworn in and he will officially name his ministers.
After that... it's Christmas!
Nevertheless, the situation continues to be very volatile. Catalonia (and the Basques) are at boiling point now that they have upset the French at the border.Anything could happen
Media reporting about VOX is heavily biased. VOX is not fascist! It has been painted as such by all the Spanish media that is from left to extreme left wing, even Spanish state television. The only media that spells out the truth is called Intereconomia and is fighting to survive for lack of funds. The other that is impartial is one called TRECE. You have the same problem in UK with Johnson and Farage who dominate the right wing media (Telegraph, Mail, Sun not to mention the Express) hence the constant anti-EU rhetoric and Gung Ho for Brexit.
The bottom line is that no one is telling the truth. Whatsapp and social media is mainly to blame with constant Fake News.
Back to VOX. It should not be compared to Le Penn, not even UKIP or Brexit Party (both of which are xenophobic). Abascal, the charasmatic leader is fighting to stop all the chaos and bring Spain back to what it was when the original Constitution was agreed by all parties. Over the past 40 years the rot slowly set in and we are literally back to the 1930's (Catalonia mess is a typical result). The removal of Franco from his grave is a classic example of revival of hatred by Sanchez and his government. Perhaps he thought this would buy votes.
The Political Parties in Spain:
Vox is NOT a far-right party but STRONG right. They defend the Constitution, the integrity of Spain and the Monarchy. IE: they want to go back to the original law and order after the dictatorship ended.
PP centre right (former Governing party)
Ciudadanos is NOT centre-right but EVERY-WHICH-WAY
Podemos is NOT anti-austerity but COMMUNIST Venezuelan style revolutionist
And finally Socialists are extreme left since Sanchez took over.
© James Skinner November 16th 2019
The changing face of modern Spain - the mayhem of forming coalition local governments has started
A New Broom in Spain
James Skinner 1.5.19
The results, to a certain degree, have stunned the nation as such a severe swing from right to left was not predicted in the various polls prior to the elections.